Pakistan–Afghanistan Rift: India’s Strategic Advantage | Taliban Diplomacy & Regional Balance

Manoj Ambat, Editor in Chief, Strategic Vanguard
Oct 19
2 min read

South Asia is at a strategic crossroads. Pakistan’s decades-old effort to dominate Afghanistan is collapsing. From violent clashes along the Durand Line to Pakistan’s refugee expulsions and the TTP insurgency, Kabul and Islamabad are locked in a bitter standoff. For India, this moment presents both opportunities and risks. With the Taliban foreign minister visiting New Delhi, Afghanistan’s shift away from Pakistan could become India’s opening to build influence and reshape regional balance.

The Durand Line Dispute: An Unsettled Border

The 2,670 km Durand Line has long been contested. Pakistan insists it is the international boundary; Afghanistan — including the Taliban — rejects it. Pakistan fenced most of it to stop militant crossings, but Kabul views it as a colonial-era division of Pashtun tribes.

Clashes between Taliban fighters and Pakistani forces have intensified, exposing a deep fracture.

TTP: Pakistan’s Security Nightmare

The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is Pakistan’s greatest security challenge today. Based in Afghan sanctuaries, the TTP carries out deadly attacks inside Pakistan. Islamabad expected the Afghan Taliban to curb the TTP after 2021, but instead Kabul has looked the other way, citing ideological and tribal ties. For Pakistan, this is a betrayal. For India, it ties down Pakistan’s military on its western front.

Refugee Expulsions: A Humanitarian Crisis

Pakistan has hosted millions of Afghan refugees since 1979, but economic collapse and social pressure triggered mass expulsions in 2023–24. Thousands of Afghans were forced to leave, sparking condemnation from Kabul and fueling anti-Pakistan sentiment. India, meanwhile, has enhanced goodwill by continuing scholarships, food aid, and medical assistance.

Pakistan’s Domestic Crises

Political Instability: With Imran Khan sidelined, Pakistan’s leadership lacks credibility and faces civil-military friction.
Economic Collapse: High inflation, low reserves, and IMF dependency are crippling the economy.
Two-Front Security Burden: Tensions with both India and Afghanistan have created Pakistan’s worst-case scenario.

This weakens Islamabad’s ability to dictate terms to Kabul.

Taliban’s Outreach to India

The Taliban’s visit to New Delhi signals pragmatic diplomacy. They seek aid, recognition, and trade. India has cautiously responded with humanitarian assistance, scholarships, and engagement. For New Delhi, the gains include:

Preventing Afghan soil from being used by anti-India groups.
Building routes for Central Asian connectivity.
Countering Pakistan’s monopoly and China’s expanding influence.

India’s Strategic Benefits

Pakistan’s Strategic Depth Collapses: Islamabad can no longer rely on Kabul.
Buffer Against Terrorism: Engagement reduces risks from Afghan-based militants.
Regional Leverage: India positions itself as a balancing power against China and Pakistan.
Soft Power Growth: India’s humanitarian policies contrast sharply with Pakistan’s expulsions.

Challenges for India

Taliban factions still aligned with Pakistan and terror groups.
China’s deeper investments may overshadow India.
Western reluctance to legitimize the Taliban could complicate India’s role.
Security guarantees from Kabul remain uncertain.

Conclusion

Pakistan’s vision of Afghanistan as a “strategic backyard” is collapsing. Instead, Islamabad now faces hostility on its western border, refugee backlash, and a strengthened TTP. Meanwhile, the Taliban’s outreach to India presents New Delhi with a chance to expand its influence, secure its interests, and project power into Central Asia. The challenge lies in balancing engagement with caution — ensuring India benefits from Pakistan’s weakness without overcommitting in an unstable Afghanistan.

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