India–Russia Relations After Ukraine: A Strategic Crossroads

Manoj Ambat, Editor in Chief, Strategic Vanguard
Oct 20
3 min read

For over half a century, India and Russia have shared a unique strategic relationship. From the Indo-Soviet Friendship Treaty of 1971 to decades of defense and energy cooperation, Moscow has been one of New Delhi’s most reliable partners. Yet, the war in Ukraine has reshaped the global order, raising pressing questions: Is Russia still a dependable ally for India? Or is New Delhi charting a new strategic course in a multipolar world?

A Legacy of Trust

During the Cold War, the Soviet Union stood by India at critical moments. From supplying tanks, fighter jets, and aircraft carriers to supporting India during the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War, Moscow played the role of a steadfast ally. Even after the fall of the USSR, Russia continued to remain India’s top defense supplier, with nearly 60-70% of Indian military platforms of Russian origin.

This legacy created a deep reservoir of trust that continues to influence India’s foreign policy decisions today.

The Ukraine War and Its Impact

The outbreak of the Ukraine war in 2022 transformed global geopolitics. Russia, under sweeping Western sanctions, turned increasingly dependent on China for economic and strategic support. For India, this new reality had three major consequences:

Energy Windfall: India became one of the largest buyers of discounted Russian crude oil, easing domestic inflation and securing energy supplies.
Defense Uncertainty: With Russia’s defense industry under pressure, delays in spare parts and advanced weapons systems have raised concerns in India.
Geopolitical Dilemma: Moscow’s growing closeness to Beijing complicates India’s security calculus, especially in the context of India’s border tensions with China.

India responded with strategic caution — abstaining from UN resolutions that directly condemned Russia, while simultaneously calling for dialogue and peace.

The Strategic Dilemma for India

India’s dilemma lies in balancing three interlinked dependencies:

Energy: Cheap Russian oil strengthens India’s economy but risks long-term overreliance.
Defense: Russia’s reliability as an arms supplier is now under question.
China Factor: The Moscow-Beijing axis reduces Russia’s space to act as India’s balancing partner.

As a result, New Delhi has accelerated defense diversification — increasing imports from the US, France, and Israel, while pushing for indigenous production under Make in India.

Russia’s Relevance for India

Despite the shifting landscape, Russia remains relevant to India:

Energy Partner: Oil, gas, and nuclear energy cooperation continue.
Geopolitical Influence: Shared platforms like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization give India a voice in multipolar discussions.
Cost-Effective Arms: Russia still provides affordable weapons and critical joint projects like BrahMos missiles.

Yet, Russia’s declining economic and military capabilities limit its ability to remain India’s primary partner.

India’s Future Strategy

Going forward, India’s approach will likely be pragmatic, not sentimental. The core strategy will be:

Multi-Alignment: Engage all powers without overcommitting to one.
Indigenization: Build domestic defense and tech capacity.
Balanced Ties: Maintain Russia as a partner, but reduce dependency.

This ensures India can navigate a complex world where alliances are fluid and national interest must remain paramount.

Conclusion

India–Russia relations in the post-Ukraine world are no longer about emotional bonds but about calculated interests. For India, the challenge is to manage this legacy partnership while forging new alliances, strengthening its economy, and preparing for a multipolar future.

Watch the complete podcast: